To understand why we need to develop resilience we need to understand   how dependent we have become on services provided by other people. The service industry is the fastest growing sector in theUSeconomy and has been for some time. As manufacturing has declined in this country (though there is a slight rebound emerging), service has risen, quite dramatically. Simply put, the service economy covers those businesses that are designed to do something for those who either do not want or cannot do it for themselves. Health care and financial service industries are good examples. The steady rise of the service economy suggests that we, as a society, are steadily becoming less resilient and more dependent on others.

To illustrate the personal nature of the service industry consider that you may require that someone clean your home on a regular basis, walk your dog while you are at work. Someone will surely look after your kids at some point. Some individuals have even more personal needs, such as help organizing one’s life, cleaning out closets. It is a given today that someone will look after your car, fix whatever is broken in your house, all this help curiously giving you a sense of control in your castle. But there is no resilience in this life style. It is dependent on countless other people supplying services and your being able to pay for them.

In the business world there is even more dependency on outsourced services – to keep the sophisticated equipment in peak performance, the payroll properly calculated by an outside firm and the services needed to deal with the complexities of running a global business. And those who orchestrate all this complexity feel in complete control of their enterprises.

Then there is the absolute confidence on the part of the public that electricity will be when you flip a switch. Same situation with your car. Gas will always be available and affordable. Unless you have lost a job in the past you will assume that you (and your spouse) will have a job as long as you want it. Friends, a reality check is long overdue. For many the reality check has already arrived in terms of lost employment, uninsured health crises, the need to rely on local food banks, all this right here in Westchester.

Meanwhile, there are powerful trends going in the opposite direction in the country, particularly strong in our region where people are learning to do for themselves even when not required to. In an age of growing uncertainty the ability to grow one’s own food, feel comfortable with a hammer of gives one a sense of control. The powerful locavore movement has aroused the public to the need to shorten the supply chain, support local food growers and producers. It seeks to strengthen downtowns to again become the heart of the community, where entrepreneurs can find a niche, small businesses will be welcome, and neighbors can enjoy each other’s company. In turbulent times this encourages a sense that one is in control of one’s life, and survival might be a real option.

This is the core principle of the Transition movement – to create resilience in communities and individuals the better to withstand shocks to one’s way of life, to redevelop skills, create bonds with one’s neighbors in producing local food – vegetable, eggs, honey, fruit.  New businesses and restaurants are jumping on the local food trend. For now the locavore movement is just the latest trend but in the future it could well be a survival strategy.

It takes a lot to get the public’s attention and even harder to hold on to it. The corn crop failure in the Midwest may be hard to ignore. On average food travels 1500 miles to get to the consumer. Even with an active locavore movement (those favoring food grown locally) in our region it amounts to a small fraction of the food required to feed the millions who live in the metropolitan area. Corn has so infiltrated the US food system that a failure in this crucial crop will inevitably impact the price of beef, dairy products, soda products and virtually all processed foods.

Here’s where the annual US corn crop goes in an average year – one-third goes for feedstock, cattle, pigs, chickens, etc; 13% is exported, much of it for feedstock as well; a massive 40% of the corn crop goes to produce ethanol. The remainder of the corn crop goes for food and beverage production, that is, a mere 14%. (Note – it takes seven pounds of grain to make one pound of meat.

Even though Congress is not supportive of the ethanol program the Farm Lobby is sufficiently powerful to keep the ethanol industry alive, even though it takes nearly a gallon of fossil fuel to make a gallon of ethanol while generating a substantial amount of pollution in the process. In spite of claims to the contrary, corn based ethanol, or any bio-fuel for that matter, can in no way be considered an answer to this country’s dependence on foreign oil. Now that we will suffer a serious crop failure this season the very notion of tying up 40% of the corn crop to ethanol production is stunning.

Who will lose out in the coming short fall? Cattle are already being slaughtered or sold off ahead of schedule because of the lack of food or its high cost. Is it even possible to reduce the amount of corn designated for the ethanol industry given the government’s commitment to this industry? Stay tuned, folks. This is a drama that has just begun to play out. It really comes down to food or fuel.

An even stickier question is whether so much of the grain harvest should be devoted to supporting an American diet heavily dependent on meat, by any measure, not a healthy one- Sadly, the American diet is becoming ever more popular in the developing economies in spite of the high cost of producing it. Cattle are naturally grass-fed animals. Agribusiness has upended the natural order in pursuit of greater turn-over and higher profits. There is a high cost to messing around with nature – unhealthy cows, more disease, requiring heavy use of antibiotics to address the disturbance in the natural cycle.

Meanwhile, weather is becoming ever more erratic and we need to consider the possibility that the poor crop we have this summer may become more like the average crop for the future.